Current Aurora Prediction
Current Aurora Prediction Activtiy Level 5
Solar Wind
Velocity:368 km/s
Particle Density:1 protons/cm3
Interplanetary Magnetic Field
Btotal:4 nT
Bz:1 nT South
Current Aurora Prediction
Activity Level:5/10
Confidence:Medium
Current Weather:na
Updated: May 21 2012 210 UTC

Forecast is updated every 15 minutes.
Data is averaged over last 15 minutes.

Current Aurora Forecast

for Canada's North

The solar wind velocity is currently low at 368 km/s. While this is certainly not the only indicator for a spectacular aurora display it doesn't help to increase our chances. However, particle density impacting the earth is pretty respectable coming in at 1 protons/cm3. These higher density numbers can help improve the overall spread of the aurora we see.

There is a significant southward pointing Bz value of 1 nT that is working to cancel out our Earth's magnetic field. As the southward Bz value increases this helps to open a 'door' in our magnetosphere allowing energy particles from the solar wind to more easily penetrate our atmosphere. This is a good indicator for the current availability of active aurora.

Aurora Activity Level 5/10: Aurora borealis activity is currently moderate. Weather permitting, decent northern lights displays will be visible directly overhead from areas above magnetic 66th.

Extended 3-Day Activity Forecast Description (May 21 to May 23): The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for May 21 (21 May). By days two and three (22 - 23 May), quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for isolated active periods are expected due to coronal hole high speed stream effects coupled with the arrival of the 18 May CME.

3-Day Aurora Forecast
Monday (May 21)Tuesday (May 22)Wednesday (May 23)
Aurora Forecast - Active: 10% - Minor Storm: 01% - Major Storm: 01%
Active aurora possible with slight chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and slight chance of isolated major auroral substorms.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 25% - Minor Storm: 15% - Major Storm: 01%
Active aurora possible with slight chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and slight chance of isolated major auroral substorms.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 25% - Minor Storm: 15% - Major Storm: 01%
Active aurora possible with slight chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and slight chance of isolated major auroral substorms.